SYLLABUS

GS-3: Security challenges and their management in border areas; linkages of organized crime with terrorism.

Context: The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2026 highlights a global decline in terrorism in 2025, even as emerging conflicts and regional instability pose risks of future resurgence.

About the Report

• The Global Terrorism Index (GTI), published by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), is a comprehensive study analysing the impact of terrorism across 163 countries, covering 99.7% of the world’s population.

• The report is based on a database of over 66,000 terrorist incidents recorded since 2007, and provides insights into long-term global trends and patterns in terrorism.

• The GTI score is calculated using four key indicators:

• Number of terrorist incidents 
• Number of fatalities 
• Number of injuries 
• Number of hostages 

• Each indicator is weighted and averaged over a five-year period, allowing the Index to capture both the immediate and long-term psychological and societal impacts of terrorism.

Key Findings of the Report

Global Trends:

• Terrorism-related deaths declined by 28% to 5,582, while incidents fell by 22% to 2,944, the lowest levels since 2007. 

• 81 countries recorded improvement, while only 19 deteriorated, marking the lowest deterioration count in the Index’s history. 

• Despite this improvement, terrorism remains a significant global threat, and future risks are rising due to geopolitical instability. 

Regional Concentration and Shifting Epicentre:

• Terrorism remains highly concentrated, with nearly 70% of deaths occurring in five countries: Pakistan, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Niger, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 

• Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly the Sahel region, remains the global epicentre, accounting for more than half of global terrorism deaths. 

• Over time, the epicentre of terrorism has shifted from the Middle East and North Africa to the Sahel. 

Pakistan as the Most Affected Country:

• Pakistan has replaced Burkina Faso as the world’s most terrorism-affected country, recording 1,139 deaths and 1,045 incidents, the highest since 2013, marking the sixth consecutive year of rising terrorism fatalities. 

• The key drivers include the resurgence of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), activities of the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), and instability along the Afghanistan border after the Taliban’s return in 2021. 

India:

• India ranked 13th in the GTI 2026 with a score of 6.428, improving by two positions, recording a decline in terrorism-related deaths and a significant reduction in terror incidents, with around a 43% fall. 

• The country accounted for approximately 2% of global terrorism fatalities.

Performance of Other Countries:

• Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo recorded significant increases in terrorism-related deaths. 

• Burkina Faso, though previously the most affected, saw the largest decline in deaths (45%). 

Terrorist Organisations:

• The Islamic State (IS) and its affiliates remained the deadliest terrorist organisation, responsible for nearly 17% of global attacks. 

• The four deadliest groups — IS, JNIM, TTP, and Al-Shabaab — together accounted for 70% of global terrorism deaths. 

• Among them, TTP was the only group to record an increase in deaths. 

Rising Concerns in the West:

• Terrorism deaths in Western countries increased by 280%, though overall numbers remain low. 

• The rise is driven by political extremism, antisemitism and ideological violence, and an increase in lone-wolf attacks, which accounted for 93% of fatal attacks.

Youth Radicalisation:

• Youth radicalisation has emerged as a major global threat. 

• Around 42% of terror investigations in Europe and North America involve minors, and radicalisation timelines have shortened to weeks due to online propaganda. 

• The causes vary across regions, with social isolation and alienation being key drivers in the West, while human rights abuses and lack of employment are major factors in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Borderland Terrorism: 

• Terrorism is increasingly concentrated near borders, with 41% of attacks occurring within 50 km and 64% within 100 km of borders. 

• Border regions act as security vacuums due to weak governance and poor cross-border coordination.

• Major hotspots include the Afghanistan–Pakistan borderlands, the Sahel tri-border region, and the Lake Chad Basin.

Emerging Risks and Future Outlook:

• The report warns that current improvements may be temporary due to rising global conflicts in regions such as the Middle East and South Asia, potential instability in Iran, and the expansion of terrorist networks. 

• Ongoing conflicts may displace populations, weaken border control, and create conditions conducive to terrorism resurgence.

Sources:
New India Express
IEP
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