Context: 

A recent study of fertility rates across 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2021 has revealed a global decline in fertility, with rates expected to remain low even with the successful implementation of pro-natal policies.

Study Highlights about India

• According to the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of India has dropped sharply from 6.18 in the 1950s to 1.9 in 2021.

• The current TFR is even below the replacement fertility level of 2.1 which is needed to maintain population stability. 

• The GBD study projected that the fertility rate could fall further to 1.04 by 2100 (nearly one child per woman).

Causes of Fertility Decline in India

• Family Planning and Policies: India’s long-standing family planning programs have contributed, but other factors have played a bigger role.
• Economic Pressures: Rising inflation, high living costs, and economic uncertainty are making parenthood financially challenging, with many families struggling to balance the costs of raising children.
• Changing Societal Attitudes: Women are increasingly exercising their choices, often opting to marry late or not at all, and often choosing career and financial independence over motherhood. 
• Rising Infertility: Rising abortions and infertility in both men and women, caused by lifestyle, stress, and environmental factors, are making it harder for couples to have children, which is adding to the decline in fertility.
• Role of Migration: With an increasing number of young men and women opting to go abroad for higher studies and jobs and choosing to settle down and raise their families there, migration also plays a factor in declining fertility levels. 

Implications of Declining Fertility

• Aging Population: As fertility rates fall, the population is getting older. By 2050, India could face a situation where the elderly population outnumbers children.

• According to the India Ageing Report 2023 of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), the percentage of the elderly population in the country is projected to double to over 20% of the total population by 2050.  

• Declining Young Workforce: Declining fertility leads to fewer young people entering the workforce.

• Pressure on Healthcare and Social Security: The shrinking working populations could lead to significant social and economic pressures on governments to increase expenditures on healthcare and support for the elderly.

• Kerala’s Situation: Kerala has a high quality of life but faces labour shortages due to young people leaving the state.

• The proportion of migrant labour could reach about 60 lakhs by 2030, one-sixth of the state's population. 

What India can do?

• Economic Reforms: India should focus on policies that promote economic growth and create more jobs. This will help support an ageing population and a smaller workforce. 
• Leveraging the Elderly Population: There is a need to utilise the potential of a growing population of senior citizens through appropriate skill development and involvement in economic activities to reduce the impact of a low fertility rate. 
• Encouraging Family Growth: India could introduce policies to encourage larger families, like tax breaks, subsidized childcare, and financial support for young families. 
• Tackling gender inequality in caregiving and improving work-life balance can also help raise fertility rates.
• Education and Awareness: Public awareness campaigns can help change attitudes towards family and gender roles. Promoting healthy family policies can encourage more people to have children.