Syllabus

GS-2: Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests; Important International institutions, agencies and fora - their structure, mandate.

Context: 

The recently released Global Peace Index 2025 flagged a concerning decline in global peacefulness. 

More on the News

The Global Peace Index (GPI) 2025 (10th edition) provides a comprehensive data-driven analysis of trends in peace, its economic value, and ways to develop peaceful societies. 

It is an annual publication of the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP).

The report covers 163 countries, comprising 99.7% of the world’s population.

There are 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators used to measure the state of peace across three domains:

• The level of Societal Safety and Security.
• The extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict.
• The degree of Militarisation.

Key Highlights

Global Trends

Global Peace Decline: There is a deterioration of global peacefulness by 0.36%, marking the 13th deterioration in peacefulness in the last 17 years.

• This deterioration is now at its highest level since the end of World War II.

Conflicts Count: Currently, there are 59 active state-based conflicts, the most since the end of WWII.

Internationalisation of Conflicts: 78 countries were involved in conflicts beyond their borders in 2024, making conflict-resolution more challenging.

• Factors include geopolitical fragmentation, increasing major power competition, and the rise in influence of middle-level powers.

Sustained Wars: Only 9% of conflicts today result in a decisive military victory, and just 4% end with negotiated settlements. 

• This reflects the broader shift toward ‘forever wars’, and points to the failure of traditional resolution strategies.

New Arms Race: Every nuclear-armed state has held or expanded its arsenal since 2022, and great-power rivalry is fuelling an arms race in advanced technologies, from AI-enabled drones to counter-space systems.

Power Fragmentation: The number of globally influential countries has nearly tripled since the end of the Cold War, rising from 13 to 34 by 2023.

Economic Loss: The global economic impact of violence reached USD 19.97 trillion in 2024, equivalent to 11.6% of global GDP, with military expenditure alone accounting for USD 2.7 trillion.

Peace Gap: The gap between the most and least peaceful countries widened, with the “peace inequality” rising by 11.7 % over the past two decades.

Role of Technology: Technological advancements are altering conflict dynamics, making warfare more accessible and prolonged.

• The number of companies manufacturing drones increased from 6 in 2022 to over 200 in 2024.

Rise in Asymmetric Capability: The power balance between state and non-state actors is shifting, with inexpensive drones, improvised explosive devices, and other low-cost technologies able to neutralise high-value military assets.

• This will make containment of insurgent militias more challenging and conflicts more prolonged.

India’s Status 

Ranking: It ranks 115th globally with a GPI score of 2.229, a 0.58% improvement in its level of peacefulness over the past year.

Peace Gains: It ranking has been gradually improving from a low of 141 in 2019.

• This was despite its location in South Asia- the 2^nd least peaceful region.

Comparison: India ranks higher than Bangladesh (123th), Pakistan (144th), and Afghanistan (158th).

Question

Military conflicts have increased in number around the world and gained new dimensions in recent years. Discuss the implications of this trend for global peace and stability. How will this affect India’s interests?

PYQ Linkage

‘China is using its economic relations and positive trade surplus as tools to develop potential military power status in Asia’, In the light of this statement, discuss its impact on India as her neighbour. (GS-2; 2017)